- Cooler print could indicate economy is slowing too much
- Odds shift in Harris’ favor; traders weigh risks of trade war
Trump and Harris clash over their economic plans in the ABC News Presidential Debate.Source: Bloomberg
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By Cecile Gutscher and Margaryta Kirakosian
September 10, 2024 at 3:53 PM PDT
Updated on
Stocks traded mixed ahead of a key inflation report amid concern the Federal Reserve has waited too long to ease monetary policy. Bonds rose.
Worries over slowing growth in major economies have resurfaced with oil trading below $70 and global bond yields retreating to a two-year low this week. Investors’ attention is on the US consumer price index due later Wednesday — expected to show another month of muted increases — and the Fed policy meeting next week.
“Downside volatility” is possible if Wednesday’s inflation print comes in hot, given the market’s expectations for aggressive cuts, said Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “A cooler print has more two-way risk as it creates more room for the Fed to cut, but may also indicate the economy is slowing faster than anticipated.”
Traders in the US interest-rate options market are still betting on at least one 50 basis-point Fed rate cut this year — just probably not before the Nov. 5 election. The yield on the two-year Treasury benchmark fell four basis points to 3.56%.
Market responses to Tuesday’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump were limited. Betting markets shifted in Harris’ favor, a signal that many expect her candidacy to earn a boost from Tuesday’s proceedings. Her odds of winning the election increased on the betting website PredictIt to 56%, compared with 53% before the debate.
The European stocks benchmark ticked higher while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3%. Stocks in renewable energy producers rose, gaining strength from the debate and Harris’ advocacy of green energy. Meanwhile, Trump’s support of the crypto sector fueled a pullback in the price of Bitcoin, and a gauge of the dollar also retreated.
“Markets may want to wait on new opinion polls in the coming days to take more decisive positions on the election,” ING Groep NV currency strategists including Francesco Pesole wrote in a note to clients. “For now, indications that Harris won this debate, even if by a small margin, can keep a lid on the dollar.”
The threat of far-reaching tariffs is shaping up to be among the biggest risks to markets. While Trump placed tariffs on more than $300 billion of Chinese goods as president and sought to block countries from buying Huawei Technologies Co. equipment for 5G networks, Harris’ stance is lesser known after she joined the ticket late.
“Historically I would have said: don’t waste too much time thinking about a presidential election,” said Ronald Temple, chief strategist at Lazard Asset Management. “But I think it is consequential because you are talking about a huge amounts of tariffs. Right now the market is not pricing a global trade war.”
West Texas Intermediate crude rebounded on Wednesday after plummeting as much as 5% in its previous session. Crude has tumbled by almost a fifth so far this quarter on concerns that slowing growth in the US and China, the leading consumers, will crimp demand at a time of robust and expanding supplies.
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Key events this week:
- US CPI, Wednesday
- Japan PPI, Thursday
- ECB rate decision, Thursday
- US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
- hsu industrial production, Friday
- Japan industrial production, Friday
- U. Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% as of 10:16 a.m. London time
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
- The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1047
- The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 141.43 per dollar
- The offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 7.1171 per dollar
- The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3096
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $56,574.28
- Ether fell 2% to $2,329.82
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.61%
- Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.11%
- Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 3.76%
Commodities
- Brent crude rose 1.8% to $70.43 a barrel
- Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,523.48 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
— With assistance from Masaki Kondo, Marcus Wong, and Winnie Hsu